2005 Season NFL Football Past Picks

November 07, 2005

This pick was released to clients on July 25, 2012 at 7:07PM ET.

07

Indianapolis at New England

Monday 11/07 09:00 PM Eastern

1 unit on Indianapolis -4 (-110) (risk 1 to return 1.91)  RESULT: WIN

Indianapolis is 0-4-1 ATS the last five in Foxboro. The Pats have beaten Peyton Manning 10 of 12 times and the Colts are 0-9 at New England since 1996. New England simply doesn't lose in New England, right? And here we have the getting over a field goal. The Pats are 8-1-1 ATS in their last ten as underdogs. Lots of history going for New England here and against Indy. But, that is history - as in the "ancient" kind. The New England team that posted those records isn't the one playing tonight. In a few ways, this looks to me like the San Diego/New England matchup from week 5. In that game, also a home game for New England, I predicted a San Diego cover. San Diego won 41-17. The reason for that prediction and outcome? San Diego was simply a much better team. In this game, Indianapolis is a much better team than New England. While I too am tempted to take 4 points on New England at home, I must remind myself of how decimated this team is. They lost their offensive and defensive coordinators in the offsense and Ty Law, Rodney Harrison and Ted Johnson are still out. And, tonight their starting running back (Corey Dillon), their starting fullback (Patrick Pass), their best run defender (Richard Seymore), their best OLB (Willie McGinest), three wide receivers (Troy Brown, Tim Dwight and David Givens) and six other players are ALL QUESTIONABLE! Folks, I can't ever remember seeing a team as injury riddled at key positions as this one - EVER. Sure, New England is in Indy's head. But, streaks always come to an end. And, what better opportunity than this? A BIG part of the Colts' problems playing in Foxboro has been horrible weather. Not tonight. It's going to be amazingly mild for November. The Colts are approaching this in a businesslike manner. They are saying the right things and I believe they'll get the monkey off their back here tonight. While it seems hard to go against the Pats at home +4, think about it. A 7-0 team is facing an injury-decimated 4-3 club. The 7-0 team is extremely well-balanced with the 9th best offense and the 4th best defense. The 4-3 team has a very good offense but the 6th worst defense in the entire league. The 7-0 team won't be taking the 4-3 team lightly - just the opposite. The Colts have the emotional edge here. This is their mid-season Super Bowl. Do you think there's a team or a player (Manning) that wants any game more than this one? Combine a much better team with that kind of motivation and we have a big edge. New England surprised Pittsburgh earlier this year but it's the passing teams that New England has really struggled against this season (San Diego, Carolina). Manning should (finally) have a big day here and get his team the win and the cover. One star on Indy minus the points.

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Wins Losses Units
2443 2157 +189.24

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