Indianapolis at Miami

After playing the Seahawks, Rams, and Titans, the Colts finally get a team they match up better against. The three teams they've played all made the postseason last year, and two were division winners. Indianapolis gave the Rams all they could handle in a 27-24 game, then last week were 14-13 in the fourth quarter at Tennessee. The Colts are 8-3-1 ATS after a spread loss, plus 15-5-1 ATS on the road against teams with a losing home record. Miami has lost two straight and is in a tough situational spot here, losing at Las Vegas last week in OT, 31-28. That was one week after their home opener, getting destroyed by the Bills, 35-0. Dolphins starting QB Tua Tagovailoa (fractured ribs) is still out, so backup Jacoby Brissett gets the nod. Tagovailoa and Brissett have combined for more interceptions (2) than TDs (1) on an offense that is #29 in total yards, #22 in rushing, #28 in passing, and #29 in points (15 points per game). The defense is #24 in yards allowed, #26 at stopping the run, and last in third-down percentage. This is the first time all season the Dolphins have been favored, and they're 13-28 ATS after allowing 400+ total yards per game in three straight contests. Also, the underdog is 12-2 ATS when these teams clash. Play Indianapolis.