2011 Season NFL Football Past Picks
October 16, 2011
This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.
Indianapolis at Cincinnati
Sunday 10/16 01:00 PM Eastern
2 units on Indianapolis PICK () (risk 2 to return 2) RESULT: LOSS
The loss of Peyton Manning has affected this Colts team severely as they are off to a dismal 0-5 start to the season. It was most notable in Week 1 when the Colts offense generated just 7 points in Houston. They may be 0-5, but this is still a team that has not lost their fight, and in fact has slowly begun to get better. The last four losses were all competitive games, showing the Colts losing by no more than 8 points in any of them, despite the fact that they faced two winning teams in the four games. Last week they had a win in hand, up by 17 over Kansas City but collapsed late. They are still learning how to win without Manning and they are getting closer. Cincinnati is a much improved team at 3-2 on the season. While most predicted them to be awful, I predicted as a best bet that they would exceed their expected season win total. But should they be laying a touchdown here? The Bengals defense is solid, but the offense simply doesn't warrant being a TD favorite at this point. The Red Rocket, Andy Dalton, has been hot and cold with six TD passes, but also five INTs and he is generating just 6.7 yards per pass. And, RB Cedric Benson isn't finding a lot of room to run, generating a sub-par 4.0 yards per carry. Once a team gets to five losses without a win, they become very valuable in the NFL to bettors. These winless teams, when facing a team with a winning record, are 39-23 ATS since 1990. The Colts are now 12-2-2 ATS overall in their last 16 vs. a team with a winning record, including 2-1 this year. While I like Cincinnati getting points, they are a dismal 3-13 ATS in their last 16 as a favorite of 3.5-10 points including 0-6 the past three seasons. Overall when laying points over that span they are 2-12 ATS. Take the Colts and the points.