2009 Season NFL Football Past Picks

December 20, 2009

This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.

20

Houston at St. Louis

Sunday 12/20 01:00 PM Eastern

2 units on St. Louis +15 (-125) (risk 2 to return 2)  RESULT: WIN

Want a game in which absolutely no one wants to touch one of the teams? This is it. As of Friday afternoon, a ridiculous 95% of the bets on this game are coming in on the Texans. Heck, St. Louis is 1-12, have lost six in a row and 22 of their last 23 games. They got smashed last game by 40 points with their rookie QB and he's starting again this game. It would take drastic measures to get Joe Public to take the Rams here. But, we're on 'em. Oftentimes when you get a game this apparently lopsided, and a team you couldn't possbly consider touching, that's the team to take. Yes, the Rams are banged-up for sure, but remember that is already reflected in the line. In this case, more than what is justified. The Texans, by virtue of dropping four straight before their home win over Seattle a week ago, are no longer a playoff contender at 6-7. The reason being is that there are only three teams in the AFC with a worse record, so they truly have no chance. Is this team (a losing team) really deserving of laying double-digits on the road? They needed wins for the last month and couldn't get them. Teams in this position often take a conservative approach and find a way to get the win with the least amount of energy expense. That is why home dogs in this range have been moneymakers for years late in the season, posting better than 75% ATS winners. The Texans are also just 1-6 ATS after hanging 30+ on their last opponent. In their history, they are 7-18 ATS off a home win and 6-16 ATS on the road after a win. And, believe it or not, St. Louis isn't quite as ugly as they appear. They aren't a good team, but they have gotten more competitive as the season has gone on. They started the season 2-5 ATS but have since gone 4-2 ATS. I am backing the ugly dog with the points here.
FINAL SCORE
TEAM 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FINAL
Texans 3 3 7 3 16
Rams 0 10 3 0 13

NFL

 

Last 20.4 years

Wins Losses Units
2443 2157 +189.24

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