2012 Season NFL Football Past Picks
November 22, 2012
This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.
Houston at Detroit
Thursday 11/22 12:30 PM Eastern
3 units on Houston (moneyline) (risk 3 to return 3) RESULT: win
2 units on Game Total UNDER PICK (risk 2 to return 2) RESULT: loss
The more things change, the more they stay the same. The Detroit Lions have held the Thanksgiving tradition of hosting a game for 73 years. But, lately there is another growing tradition: The Lions eating humble pie on this holiday. They have now lost eight straight Turkey Day games. Detroit finally made a playoffs appearance last year, but it was a quick and decisive exodus. Hope was high last season as the Lions started off on fire but it was quickly exposed as a mirage. The Lions had a rather easy schedule last season and made the playoffs despite no wins vs. a winning team. They have beaten just one winning team this season, marking the last 26 games played with just one victory over a winning team. They came out smoking last year at 5-0, but have been just 9-13 since. The defense is still below average, and an offense that produced 34 points or more seven times last year, has reached that mark just once this season. On the season the Lions are averaging a very pedestrian 23.6 points per game. So while they are considered all offense that has not been the case this season. Detroit is just 2-27 strasight-up in their last 29 games vs. top level teams (those above .750). Under Jim Schwartz, the Lions are 8-29 straight-up as an underdog and 1-16 straight-up vs. elite quarterbacks (teams with 64%+ completion rate). Detroit is off a hard-fought loss to Green Bay and underdogs that are coming off a loss to a division rival win their next game just 29.8% of the time. When facing a team at .800+, that figure drops to 20%. While I think Houston probably wins and covers here, I think the best bet is Houston on the moneyline. I also like the UNDER in this game. The Houston defense is ranked No. 4 in the league. They are allowing just 18 points per game (13.7 per game on the road). So, a Detroit offensive explosion is not likely here. The Texans are 10-1 to the UNDER after allowing 30+ points in their previous game and after that showing vs. Jacksonville, you can be sure this defense will be out to make a statement here. Under Gary Kubiak, the Texans are 14-5 UNDER in late-season play when facing a losing team. Houston has the ground game to shorten the game with a lead and this total is high. Take the Texans to win, and the UNDER.
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