2012 Season NFL Football Past Picks

September 23, 2012

This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.


Houston at Denver

Sunday 09/23 04:25 PM Eastern

2 units on Houston PICK () (risk 2 to return 2)  RESULT: WIN

The Denver Broncos have high expectations after signing Peyton Manning to lead the offense. After his first game this season, many in Denver started booking flights to the Super Bowl. Ooops. It is clear at this point of the season that Manning at 36-years-old and out of football for a long time, is not what he once was. He is going to be incosistent. Manning threw three INTs in the first three drives last week and was personally responsible for the loss to Atlanta. He still has the accuracy, but the arm strength is visibly not there. He completes a lot of check-offs, and his 5.89 yards per attempt vs. Atlanta is indicative of that. When he had to stretch things out and make the tough throws, he threw a lot of ugly passes that seemed to flutter, as he just doesn't seem to have the arm strength at this point. Teams are going to jump routes, and the results could be bad for the Denver offense. Houston will be the best defense the Broncos have seen, which I think will just complicate matters in this one. Houston has the edge on both sides of the ball with an experienced and quality QB along with a potent running game. I expect the Denver defense to spend a lot of time on the field. The Texans get their momentum from their No. 1 ranked defense, and are 8-0-1 ATS after allowing less than 90 rushing yards in their previous contest. They have covered the spread six straight times in expected close games (line of +3 to -3). The Broncos have been bad on short rest when playing on the Sunday following a Monday night game at 0-6-1 in their last seven, covering just 15 of their last 51 at home. And, John Fox coached teams are just 12-28 ATS following a road loss. Play on Houston.
Texans 7 14 10 0 31
Broncos 5 6 0 14 25



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