2007 Season NFL Football Past Picks
November 25, 2007
This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.
Houston at Cleveland
Sunday 11/25 01:00 PM Eastern
2 units on Game Total UNDER 52.5 -110 (risk 2 to return 2) RESULT: WIN
Cleveland certainly has no defense while both of these teams can score. Cleveland has gone OVER in six straight games. But, none of those totals was this high, and the average was 46 - 5 full points below this number. This is by far the highest total Cleveland has seen this season, despite facing better offenses in New England and Pittsburgh (twice). It's also the highest number Houston has seen. We think it's inflated due to recent events, specifically the good play of Cleveland's offense. In November games featuring a team off a road game in which both teams scored 24+ points, the UNDER has hit at a 68% rate (65-30) over the past ten seasons. If the team off that high-scoring road game is now at home (as is Cleveland), the UNDER is 24-4 (86%)! Houston knows they can't win in a shootout. They will do what they can to keep Cleveland's offense off the field through a steady-dose of running. We like this one to stay UNDER.