2011 Season NFL Football Past Picks

January 15, 2012

This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.


Houston at Baltimore

Sunday 01/15 01:00 PM Eastern

2 units on Baltimore PICK () (risk 2 to return 2)  RESULT: LOSS

The Texans really caught a bad break when Matt Schaub went down with a season ending injury. They were amongst the NFL leaders in both offense and defense at that time. The defense was the real surprise as it was absolutely awful in 2010. In the five games leading up to the Shaub injury this year, the Texans were allowing an average of just 13 ppg. However, since then Yates has taken over and the defense has had to spend more time on the field and it has fallen back by over 4 points per game despite playing against some of the worst offenses in the league (Indy, Jacksonville). Baltimore has been a very good team over the last four years including this one. Their problem has been residing in a division with Pittsburgh. They finally broke through this year vs. Pittsburgh and, for the first time since 2006, they will host a playoff game. What is amazing is they have played seven playoff games the last three years and all seven have been on the road, yet they still went 4-3. In those games they outscored their opponents all three years and by a total of 32 points! Now, they play at home and will be fired up as will the fans starved for a home playoff game. While very suspect on the road, the Ravens have been all but unbeatable in this building. They have compiled an 18-1 straight up record here over their last 19 games, winning by an average margin of 12.3 ppg. TJ Yates has started the last five games while he has been pretty good, Houston has a losing record in those five games. The Ravens offense has been much better at home where they average 27.4 ppg including 29 against Houston when the Texans were playing better. This is going to be a tough spot for Houston as Yates has yet to face a major defense since taking over. Baltimore is 40-28 ATS under John Harbaugh while Houston is just 16-26 ATS under Gary Kubiak following a home game. Take the Ravens minus the points.
Texans 3 10 0 0 13
Ravens 17 0 0 3 20



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