2008 Season NFL Football Past Picks

September 28, 2008

28

Green Bay at Tampa Bay

Sunday 09/28 01:00 PM Eastern

3 units on Green Bay +2.5 (-102) (risk 3 to return 3)  RESULT: LOSS

Green Bay is a dog here? What?!? How soon people forget the Packers are 19-4 SU in their last 23 regular season games, and 19-0 SU vs teams not named Dallas or Chicago! I say this because at the beginning of the season most thought without Favre the Packers were headed south. That certainly has not been the case as Aaron Rodgers has simply shined. To this point of the season (yes, it's still early), he has been an upgrade at QB with a 102.9 rating and no INTs. To me, this guy looks to be for real. I say that not just based on the numbers. Watch him play, he works through his progressions like a vet, utilizing many different weapons, making it very difficult on opposing defenses. The emergence of Greg Jennings at wideout gives the Packers top recievers on both sides of the field. The Bucs defense is much softer than it has been in many years, and the only legit QB they have seen this season was Drew Brees who lit them up for 343 yards and three TDs. Brian Greise was run out of Chicago (and Denver before that) for a reason. He makes too many mistakes. He did it last week, throwing two INTs that almost cost the Bucs the game. Against a better opponent like Green Bay, it will. Don't be fooled - Brian Griese is not a savior, nor a long-term starting QB in this league. The difference between these teams is that Green Bay and Rodgers take care of the ball and in a close game, mistakes are deadly. Greise has shown a penchant for delivering those mistakes time and time again. I'll go with the Packers and Rodgers, over Griese. The Pack are still surprisingly under the radar despite winning 19 straight vs all but two teams and posting a 13-4 ATS mark on the road under their current coach. We get exceptional value on them thanks to their loss to a superb Dallas team last week. Wrong team favored in this one.

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