Green Bay at Tampa Bay

Green Bay and Aaron Rodgers are an underdog but 9-3 ATS against winning teams. Rodgers has been NFL MVP in each of the last two years. The defense is second in the NFL on third-down (25%), Top 10 in points surrendered, plus Top 5 against the pass after being Top 10 in 2021. The Packers are 27-16 ATS on natural grass, 10-4 ATS versus the NFC, and 37-14-1 ATS after allowing 150+ yards rushing in the last game. Tampa Bay has been very conservative on offense as they look to run the football more this season. But the biggest concern for the Buccaneers is health. Four-time Pro Bowl selection Mike Evans won't play as he sits out because of a suspension. RB Leonard Fournette (hamstring), center Robert Hainsey (knee), and offensive tackle Donovan Smith (elbow) are hurting, while the defense is banged up in the secondary with cornerback Carlton Davis III (hip injury). NFL underdogs like the Packers that averaged 24 ppg in the previous season are 46-23 ATS, so back the talented and healthier dog. Play Green Bay.