2009 Season NFL Football Past Picks

September 27, 2009

This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.


Green Bay at St. Louis

Sunday 09/27 01:00 PM Eastern

3 units on St. Louis +7 (-110) (risk 3 to return 3)  RESULT: LOSS

The Green Bay Packers have stumbled out of the gate. They were supposed to beat Chicago in week one and did. But it required a heroic last minute thouchdown pass. Then, they lost outright last week to Cincinnati as a 9 point favorite, reaching a real low. They are really having problems on their offensive line. Last week the Bengals got to Aaron Rodgers seven times and Rodgers has yet to get in-synch this season. He has now been sacked 10 times on the young season, and seeing LT Chad Clifton carried off the field with an ankle injury in the third quarter won't help things. You really have to question if a team is overrated when they are a double-digit favorite at home, get a pick-six in the game, and still lose the game outright by seven points. It certainly isn't a team on which I feel comfortable laying a TD on the road. The Packers may yet have a good season, but they need to prove they are worthy of the big favorite role before I back them there. The Rams' offense has been missing the first two weeks, but the defense has been very respectable considering the fact that they are spending most of the time on the field. They kept the Redskins out of the end zone on the road last week. If not for a late fumble inside the Skins redzone, the Rams would have likely won that game. The turnover (and subsequent loss) helped mask the fact that the Rams' offense actually showed signs of life in that game. They had three drives of 10+ plays and they were 50% on third-down conversions. Yes, the St. Louis offense has issues, but they aren't as bad as people think. The public is lining up on the Packers like they already know the final score, with nearly 80% on them. This is supposed to be a bounce-back week for them. Maybe they forgot that the Rams lost three of their last four road games a year ago by 24 points, 19, and 44 points, but then came home and lost to the Niners by 1 point, Seattle by 3, and Maimi by 4, and then beat the Cowboys here. This is just too many points for a team on the road that can't keep defenders out of their backfield.
Packers 9 14 0 13 36
Rams 0 14 3 0 17



Last 20.4 years

Wins Losses Units
2443 2157 +189.24

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