2009 Season NFL Football Past Picks

October 05, 2009

This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.

05

Green Bay at Minnesota

Monday 10/05 08:35 PM Eastern

3 units on Minnesota -210 (moneyline) (risk 3 to return 3)  RESULT: WIN

The Vikings will take on the Packers with Brett Favre wearing the purple and gold for the first time. This is a long-standing, heated divisional rivalry that doesn't need extra motivation but it is there. With Favre playing traitor and going to one of the two most hated teams by Packers' fans, he has thrown down the gauntlet. It should be fun to watch if nothing else. It appears that the Vikings have passed the Packers this season. Green Bay was supposed to be better than they have played. They are having all sorts of problems on their offensive line, having allowed 12 sacks already. They are struggling on third down, where they rank No. 21 in the NFL at 33%. That won't help them against a Vikings’ defense that ranks as the best third down defense in the league. The Packers stacked the box with eight against the run in St. Louis because they have had problems there as well. They still couldn't stop a poor Rams running game that ended up with 149 yards despite trailing the entire game. Adrian Peterson should find a lot of room vs. this Packer front seven. The telltale sign here may be the fact that the Packers had a +3 turnover margin in their win over the Rams, and were +4 against the Bears, and had to come from behind despite the lopsided turnover count. On the season, the Packers own a 9-to-1 turnover edge and with that, they should be winning games by larger than their 27-21 margin.  Games are usually won in the trenches, and Minnesota has a clear edge on both sides of the ball and are playing very well on top of it. Being a division game of great importance to both teams, I am nervous laying more than a field goal. So, I think the wise choice is Minnesota on the moneyline. This way if they win a close one 23-20 or 24-23, we still get the win. The Vikes are 10-1 straight-up as a favorite since the start of last season and I look for them to make it 11-1 tonight.
FINAL SCORE
TEAM 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FINAL
Packers 7 7 0 9 23
Vikings 7 14 7 2 30

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