2010 Season NFL Football Past Picks

January 23, 2011

This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.

23

Green Bay at Chicago

Sunday 01/23 03:00 PM Eastern

4 units on Game Total OVER PICK (risk 4 to return 4)  RESULT: LOSS

The Green Bay Packers and the Chicago Bears define the word rivalry. This one began in 1921 and between these teams there are 21 NFL Championships, four Superbowl wins and 48 members of the Pro Football Hall of Fame. This will be the 182nd time these teams have met. Their first post-season meeting was all the way back in 1941, some 69 years ago. It is only fitting these teams should meet for the NFC Championship. The Packers right now are playing as good as anyone and their QB Aaron Rodgers is not only good, he is playing at the highest level of his career at the right time. He single-handedly destroyed the Falcons last week. All the Packers offense has done in his three post-season starts is score 114 points (38 ppg). The numbers Rodgers is putting up are Hall of Fame stature as he has thrown for 11 TD's to 1 INT and 969 yards in the three games. His completion percentage is 73.3%, and his yards per pass attempt are 9.23. This Bears defense is good but it is fading a bit, harkening memories of the 2006-07 Bears defense. That team opened the season allowing 150 points in their first 12 games and then as fatigue set in, they gave up 172 over their last seven. That was a 12 ppg increase. In the Super Bowl, Peyton Manning and the Colts punished them. This year the Bears allowed 146 through their first ten games but in their last seven, they have allowed 164. That is a nearly double-digit increase and that doesn't bode well when facing Rodgers. The Packers don't own the only hot offense in this game however. The Bears went through their first ten games without scoring 30 points in a game. They have since topped the 30 mark in four of their last seven contests. That includes some excellent performances vs. good defenses including 40 vs. Minnesota and 38 vs. the Jets. While I don't think these teams score in the 30s here, they don't have to as the total is in the low 40s, and I believe it is very reachable. Rodgers has momentum now as does the Packer offense and that makes the OVER an even stronger play. In their last 25 games after topping the 350 yard mark, the Packers have come back with an 18-7 mark to the OVER in their next game. The Bears are 6-1 OVER in their last seven in the same situation. They have also played five of their last six playoff games to the OVER. Under Lovie Smith, the Bears are 11-2 OVER at home after a double-digit win and 19-9 OVER at home after an ATS win. I like this game to go OVER the total.
FINAL SCORE
TEAM 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FINAL
Packers 7 7 0 7 21
Bears 0 0 0 14 14

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