2004 Season NFL Football Past Picks

January 02, 2005

This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.


Detroit at Tennessee

Sunday 01/02 01:00 PM Eastern

3 units on Tennessee +3 (-110) (risk 3 to return 5.73)  RESULT: WIN

I've been a Titans-basher this season but I like 'em this week for the first time all season. While I think they were terribly overrated early on, I think they are just the opposite here. It took five straight SU and ATS losses by the Titans but finally the pendulum has swung too far the other way and we get a nice underrated home underdog. Tennessee got hammered by Denver last week as Billy Volek came back down to earth after two Peyton Manning-like performances in which he put up over 900 yards against Kansas City and Oakland. Meanwhile, Detroit has gotten on peoples' radar screen, after winning more games than they have in the last four seasons. They've done it behind the legs of Kevin Jones. This guy is good and should have some success against Tennessee. But, I think Volek will likey return to his winning ways. Whether or not you are a Billy Volek fan, you gotta give him props for being only the fourth QB to ever throw for 400+ yards in back-to-back games. These are the Detroit Lions, folks, laying 3 points on the road. The Lions are 3-4 in road games but those three wins came in the first half of hte season. Since mid-season they are 0-4 on the road - the big fat goose egg. Yet they are favored here. Tennessee qualifies for a trend involving teams in their last game of the season vs. an opponent off a win that is 101-56 ATS and 7-2 over the past three seasons. They also qualify for a trend that involves home underdogs with poor defenses off a blowout loss that is 48-18 ATS including 4-2 this year. The public often overreacts and I think this is a perfect contrarian play on the Titans to pull off the upset and win at home.



Last 20.4 years

Wins Losses Units
2443 2157 +189.24

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