2004 Season NFL Football Past Picks
December 12, 2004
This pick was released to clients on July 10, 2012 at 8:24PM ET.
Detroit at Green Bay
Sunday 12/12 04:15 PM Eastern
1 unit on Detroit +9.5 (-110) (risk 1 to return 1.91) RESULT: WIN
Everyone's on the Pack in this one. Green Bay was on quite a roll until they strolled into Philly last week. 47-6... OUCH! That's gotta hurt. How will the Pack react to that loss? That's the big question here. My guess is that it will have a bad effect. Green Bay was believing their own press after reeling off six straight victories. They took a major shot to the ego in that loss to Philadelphia. The road to the Super Bowl in the NFC goes through Philly and Green Bay basically now knows it has no shot. Green Bay doesn't perform very well after getting spanked like they did last Sunday. They are just 1-5 ATS over the past three years after giving up 35+ points. After that huge game, they now have a let down in the making as they face the lowly 5-7 Detroit Lions. How can they get up for this one after playing the Eagles last week, getting pasted like they did, and with a big matchup against the Jaguars looming next week? Meanwhile this is a huge game for Detroit. They absolutely need a win to keep any playoff homes alive. A win over Green Bay would revitalize their season. This is also a revenge game for them and the Lions are 5-1 ATS over the past three seasons revenging an earlier season loss. The final reason for this pick is Green Bay's defense, or lack thereof. The Pack defense is really bad and not getting any better. They are allowing 415 yards per game and 6.6 yards per play over the past three games. One star pick: Detroit to keep this closer than a lot of people think. If you hang around until close to kickoff, my guess is you'll get 10 points or more.