2011 Season NFL Football Past Picks
October 30, 2011
This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.
Detroit at Denver
Sunday 10/30 04:05 PM Eastern
3 units on Denver PICK () (risk 3 to return 3) RESULT: LOSS
The Detroit Lions have been a good story in 2011 although some of the sheen is wearing off. They ran off 13 straight wins, counting the preseason and the four games from the last four a year ago. They have finally met up with some adversity the past two weeks and stumbled hard. Their QB is banged up and it seems that at least some of the confidence is gone. Playing on the road as a road favorite can be tough to handle for a young, fragile team off two straight defeats. Denver got a minor miracle last week, getting shutout for over 56 minutes vs. Miami, then coming back to win in overtime with a pair of late scores. That certainly has to be a confidence boost for the Broncos. I am not sure yet what kind of QB Tebow will be, but right now he gives this team confidence. The Lions 5-0 start followed by back-to-back home losses rarely occurs in the NFL. Teams in that situation that are then posted as a road favorite vs. a team off a win are just 2-5 ATS since 1989 and have lost three outright. The Lions have issues stopping the ground game and in their last five games every opponent has topped the 110-yard mark on the ground. The Lions’ offense has gone south without Jahvid Best. He was the key ingredient and the last two weeks the Lions have managed just 16 and 19 points. This is a young, impressionable team, and right now there is some doubt creeping in. The Lions are also 2-14 ATS in their last 16 as a road favorite of 7 or less and 7-18 ATS off an upset loss at home. Go with Denver in this one.