Detroit at Chicago

This is the toughest play this weekend, I know. Everything points to the Lions. But wait a second. A division rival is coming to town and Detroit is just 3-3 on the road. Should they really be laying over a touchdown here? The Lions are 2-7 ATS in their last nine on the road and 10-22-1 ATS on the road against a team with a losing home record. The Lions just played three straight home games and now head out on the road where they are 1-2 SU/0-3 ATS their last three road contests. Historically teams going on the road after three straigh at home really struggle to live up to expectations. Detroit plays indoors and the Lions are 1-5 ATS in December and 0-5 ATS on grass. Think the benching of Cutler here is a bad thing? Consider that he has 24 turnovers this season (ridiculous 1.7 per game) and is 45-72-2 ATS in his career NFL starts. Getting him out of the lineup is a good thing. The Detroit defense isn't as sharp away from home, resulting in a 7-1 mark OVER the total on the road against a team with a losing home record, plus they're 21-7-2 OVER the total after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. Chicago is home and in a great situational spot, playing its third consecutive home game. Detroit's one weak spot is the secondary at #14 against the pass, and the Bears have a lot of talent in the passing game. Coach Mark Trestman did wonders with backup QB McCown a year ago (13 TDs, 1 pick) and now he gets to try it again with QB Jimmy Clausen. Chicago's defense is a weak spot and the Bears are on a 22-10 run OVER the total, as well as 9-4 OVER against the NFC. The home team is 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings between these division rivals. And the Lions are one of the worst favorites in the NFL having gone 53-77 ATS in that role and 26-46 as a favorite in this range (-3.5 to -9.5). I look for the Bears to show some pride here at home vs. a division rival and get a little boost from the change at QB. Take the points on Chicago and play the OVER.