2010 Season NFL Football Past Picks
November 14, 2010
This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.
Detroit at Buffalo
Sunday 11/14 01:00 PM Eastern
5 units on Detroit PICK () (risk 5 to return 5) RESULT: WIN
We've been on Buffalo for three straight weeks and they haven't let us down. In those games they were under the radar (an underdog that was playing better than people thought). But now they shift to the favorite role and I believe it's time to shift gears. Yes, Detroit has dropped 24 straight on the road. So why back them here? This is a role reversal game with the Bills as the winless team coming into a role the Lions are usually in. It's the Lions who are now very underrated. Most people see a 2-6 record and think it's more of the same. But, their ATS record paints a different picture. They have covered seven of their eight games and the one they did not cover they missed by one point. The oddsmakers haven't caught up to them yet and we get value on them here in a game in which they should be favored. The Lions recorded 26 sacks all of last season and stand fifth in the league this season with their rebuilt front with 24 already (thank you Suh). They are improved on both sides of the ball. The 2-6 mark could be 5-3 with any luck. A bad call took a win away from them vs Chicago in the opener, an OT loss to the Jets stung, a 3 point loss to Philly and an INT on a drive that could of tied the Giants late in the fourth were all games within their grasp. Sure, Mathew Stafford is likely not playing but this team has shown it can compete with Shaun Hill under center. The Bills are worn out with three straight losses by a field goal, where they left a lot on the field. The lowly Lions aren't exactly a team that will get the motor running. The Bills have a home field deficit showing 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 here. I like Detroit here.