2011 Season NFL Football Past Picks

January 14, 2012

This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.

14

Denver at New England

Saturday 01/14 08:00 PM Eastern

3 units on Denver PICK () (risk 3 to return 3)  RESULT: loss

4 units on Game Total UNDER PICK (risk 4 to return 4)  RESULT: loss

1 unit on Denver (moneyline) (risk 1 to return 1)  RESULT: loss

The amazing saga of the Tim Tebow led Denver Broncos continues into the post-season. The Broncos were posted as a nine point underdog to a Steelers team that had allowed a total of 48 points in their last six games or just 8 ppg - the top defense in the league. The Steelers had held 14 of 16 teams to 20 points or less. Here comes a "one-dimensional" Denver team with a QB that can't throw straight, a team that lucked into the playoffs, and what happens? Denver scores 29, Tebow torches the Steelers secondary for over 300 yards while they run for over 130 as well. The crazy upset happens. The defense was good enough to keep the Steelers at bay most of the game and get big turnovers when they needed them. Yes, Pittsburgh was certainly banged up and that helped. But, let's give credit where credit is due. Tebow played lights out and the coaches had a great gameplan and drew up some killer plays. So now this inspired group that believes heads to New England as a near two TD underdog, to a team that can't play defense at all. But their offense is unstoppable, right? This Pats offense averages just 55 yards per game more than Pittsburgh. New England has had a big offense since Brady took over at QB, but how has that transpired in the playoffs recently? The vaunted Brady-led Pats offense in their last five playoff games has averaged just 22.7 points per game. How about this shocker....the Pats haven't done the most scoring in those five games, their opponents do! But wait. This game is in Foxboro - the Pats can't lose here! In their last four home playoff games New England has been outscored by a 70-90 margin and were victims in Foxboro last year as a 9.5 point favorite by 7 points. Denver is having one of those special years where special things happen and are 4-0 ATS in their last four as a road dog. Brady and company are huge winners when the pointspreads are 7 or less, but at 10.5 points or more they are just 5-16 ATS in their last 21. With the passing game opened up, the Broncos should be able to move the ball here against ranked second-to-last in yards allowed. In the first meeting between these clubs, Denver racked up over 250 yards on the ground and if not for three lost turnovers in the second quarter, would have had a chance to win. The Pats are 7-1-1 to the UNDER in their last nine divisional playoff games. They are also 10-1 UNDER in the Bill Belichick era at home when they have an extra week to rest. Meanwhile the Broncos stand tall to the UNDER after a win at 18-8 to the UNDER. The last four playoff games in Foxboro have averaged just 40 total points scored. Play on Denver and the UNDER.

FINAL SCORE
TEAM 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FINAL
Broncos 0 7 3 0 10
Patriots 14 21 7 3 45

NFL

 

Last 20.4 years

Wins Losses Units
2443 2157 +189.24

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