Denver at Los Angeles

If you asked anyone about the Seattle defense, a one word response might likely be elite. What few realize, largely because of their offense, that the Denver defense is tied with Seattle for the best in the league in terms of yards per play at 4.8. The Broncos have allowed 20 points or less in more than half their games on the season. The Denver offense has averaged less than 25 points per game over their last four, and hasn't been clicking the way it had been last season, or earlier this season. But, it's the defense that has come to the rescue, allowing 33 points total over their last two games. According to Antonio Gates, Phillip Rivers is playing through a serious injury. That may be the truth as the Chargers' offense has declined since week six after four of five games of scoring 30+, and so have Rivers' numbers. The result is 27.3 ppg in the first six to 18.4 ppg in the last seven. That is a serious decline. The Chargers have been able to hold Denver to 28 points or less in three of the last four games, so I think they will continue to defend them well. Remember, though, that the Broncos' defense is elite, and if Rivers is hurting (just 163 yards and a pick last week vs NE), those points are going to be plenty. The Broncos have been very good inside the conference at 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13, which includes 4-1 ATS in their last five in San Diego. Under John Fox, the Broncos are 10-1 ATS on the road in division games! The Chargers have not been good at home vs. the better teams as they are 1-8 ATS in their last nine at home vs. a team with a winning road record. The Chargers are also 17-7 UNDER vs. conference foes since last season and 8-1 to the UNDER in their last nine after serving up more than 250 passing yards in their previous game. Denver covers and this one stays UNDER.