2008 Season NFL Football Past Picks

September 28, 2008

This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.

28

Denver at Kansas City

Sunday 09/28 01:00 PM Eastern

3 units on Game Total UNDER 47.5 -110 (risk 3 to return 3)  RESULT: loss

3 units on Kansas City +10 (-120) (risk 3 to return 3)  RESULT: win

Kansas City? Seriously? Am I smoking crack? I know I'll take some flack for this pick, after what KC did for us last week. But, I am a buy-low-sell-high kinda guy and as much as I wish I didn't, I like the Chiefs this week. Denver has racked up over 400 yards and 38 points per game, so this one should be easy right? Not so fast. There is a golden rule in the NFL handicapping circles that says "Thou shall not lay more than a TD on the road." The problem for Denver is what we have seen week-in-week out with them: What the offense takes, the defense gives back, as they have also allowed over 400 yards per game. The past two weeks, their offense has built nice leads, only to see their bad defense give them away. If not for a bit of luck, Denver could easily be 1-2. Instead, they are 3-0. The Chiefs have been one of the strongest home underdogs in the NFL over the years, and at 0-3 you can bet Herm Edwards will have this team ready to play this week. Denver has been beating up on pass defenses that rank 26th, 29th, and 31st in the league. The one bright spot for the Chiefs thus far is that they currently rank 4th in the NFL against the pass, so the points shouldn't be as plentiful this week on the road for the Broncos. I expect to see Shanahan run it more, which means a shorter game. The Broncos are the worst pass defense in the NFL right now, so even the Chiefs anemic offense should get a few points here. Let's not forget that Denver is 3-11 ATS in their last fourteen division games and that the home team in this series has gone 14-2 SU and 12-3-1 ATS in the last sixteen meetings. Denver is 0-6 ATS this season and last after putting up 30+ points last game and they are 4-13 ATS the past three seasons after a win. Under Shanahan, the Broncs are 1-9 ATS after scoring 30+ points in three straight games. As hard as it is to stomach, I like this one to go to the Chiefs, given this bushel of points, and I like the game to go UNDER.


FINAL SCORE
TEAM 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FINAL
Broncos 0 10 3 6 19
Chiefs 6 7 3 17 33

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Wins Losses Units
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