2007 Season NFL Football Past Picks
November 11, 2007
This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.
Denver at Kansas City
Sunday 11/11 01:00 PM Eastern
4 units on Denver +3 (-103) (risk 4 to return 4) RESULT: WIN
Denver was absolutely abused last week vs. Detroit. How can we back them? Buy low - sell high! Now is the time to get on this seemingly unbackable team. Denver started 2-0, but has gone 1-5 since. They look like a bad team that can't get out of its own way. That isn't the entire story, but it does offer some line value in this game. Denver has had the roughest six weeks in the NFL in terms of schedule. They have faced Jacksonville (5-3), Indy (7-1), San Diego (4-4), Pittsburgh (6-2), Green Bay (7-1), and Detroit (6-2). The combined record of their opponents over that stretch? 35-13! So before you think this team is as awful as it may seem, reconsider. They have had three road games against teams that are 9-3 at home. The three losses of their opponents at home? They came to New England, a one point loss by Buffalo to Dallas, and Denver beat Buffalo by 1. So, knowing that, is it really a surpise that Denver struggled in those road games? They now get a look at an offense that is ranked 30th in the league and has trouble finding the endzone. The Cheifs can't run the ball, and will likely be missing their top running back in Larry Johnson due to injury. Denver has the 10th ranked offense, despite facing some of the best teams in the NFL (see above). The Broncos have had trouble stopping the run, but KC is without its big back, and can't sustain drives. Denver was completely out-classed last week, losing by 38. Once we get into the crux of the season (after week 4), teams that lose by 28+, come back strong, as they have been 39-13 ATS last 52! Under Mike Shanahan, this team bounces back after humiliating defeats. They are 10-2 ATS following a game in which they were out of it by halftime (trailing by two touchdowns or more at the half). Denver is a prideful team that is ready to stand up and fight back. We like the points and will ride the Broncos in this one.
|Kansas City ChiefsChiefs||0||0||0||0||11|