2014 Season NFL Football Past Picks
December 22, 2014
This pick was released to clients on December 22, 2014 at 12:46PM ET.
Denver at Cincinnati
Monday 12/22 08:30 PM Eastern
2 units on Denver -3 (-115) (risk 2 to return 3.74) RESULT: LOSS
This line is off as these teams are not even close in skill level. The Broncos have a distinct advantage at quarterback and the better defense. While the Broncos are used to playing in, and winning, primetime games, the Bengals are historically bad in them. Peyton Manning has never lost to the Bengals. Sure, the Bengals need to win to keep playoff hopes alive. But, Denver is also fighting for something very important – home field advantage in January. Neither team is going to lay down here, so it comes down to skill. The Bengals have been a very inconsistent team all season. After starting with three victories, they have gone back and forth in their performances. And, they have put up some real stinkers vs. the league’s elite teams. Versus New England, the Bengals lost 17-43. They also lost to the Colts 0-27. The rest of their games have come against mediocre or bad competition. So, when facing just their third elite opponent this year, I find it hard to believe the Bengals will keep this close. Under John Fox, the Broncos are 23-7 ATS on the road when the total isn’t set exceptionally high or low (between 42.5 and 49). Meanwhile, Marvin Lewis has really struggled vs. good passing offenses. The Bengals are just 2-13 ATS under Lewis at home vs. teams that average 7.5+ yards per pass attempt (Manning averages 7.7 this season). Back the Broncos as my Monday Night Game of the Year.
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