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2011 Season NFL Football Past Picks

December 24, 2011

24

Denver at Buffalo

Saturday 12/24 01:00 PM Eastern

3 units on Buffalo PICK () (risk 3 to return 3)  RESULT: WIN

The Denver Broncos have been the talk of the NFL in the second half of the season, and Tim Tebow is everywhere you look. The problem is that perception doesn't equal reality. Denver has been on a nice run since Tebow took over but the reality is they have been fairly lucky. During the great run that Tebow had, the Broncos have enjoyed a 2-to-1 turnover advantage. They looked really bad for 90% of some of those games but came away with a win. In reality, the Broncos with Tebow are a mediocre team yet the impression is they are better than that. That spells value fading them. The Broncos defense got a lift from the excitement created by Tebow and winning games and stepped up in a few games, but has become again what it was earlier in the season - not so good. Denver allowed a season's second best 32 points to 2-10 Minnesota three weeks ago, stopped the Bears’ non-existent offense then were torched for 41 vs. New England a season high - even for the Pats. They also allowed a season high 49 points to Green Bay and a season second best to Detroit who hit them for 45. Tebow has been a feel-good story, but the fact remains that the Broncos have scored 18 or fewer points in six of their last nine games and "feel good" doesn't cover spreads in the NFL long term. Buffalo has lost seven straight games, but they remain a threat at home where they are 4-3 and have outscored their opponents here. Denver is just 15-35-1 in their last 51 ATS as a favorite, and the Bills come in having covered four of their last five vs. the Broncos. Play contrarian - Play Buffalo.

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