2011 Season NFL Football Past Picks

December 17, 2011

This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.


Dallas at Tampa Bay

Saturday 12/17 08:20 PM Eastern

4 units on Tampa Bay PICK () (risk 4 to return 4)  RESULT: loss

2 units on Game Total OVER PICK (risk 2 to return 2)  RESULT: loss

The Dallas Cowboys are one of those teams in which the sum is less than the parts. Their roster is better than most NFL teams, but week after week they struggle when the expectations are high. Regardless of the opponent, the Cowboy's seem to make every game an adventure. Once in control of the division, they have fallen to 7-6 on the season and now trail the Giants. Their last four games followed the script to a tee. They went to Washington and needed overtime to get past the Redskins. They needed a field goal at home on Thanksgiving to get past Miami and lost in overtime to Arizona. Last week they had a nice lead but fell to the Giants at home by 3 points. The Cowboys have played nine games decided by 6 points or less, but realistically they have played nine decided by 4 or less, as the 6-point game was in overtime. When asked to cover large numbers, this Cowboys team usually fails. Tampa Bay has lost seven straight games by an average of 15.1 points per game, and look to have thrown in the towel. Their best game in the stretch was vs. the best team, as they gave Green Bay a scare. I believe they will get up for America's team at home with national TV shining the spotlight the same way. Teams that have lost seven straight games have covered over 60% of the time in the NFL. Dallas is just 2-9 ATS the past two seasons when facing a losing team and 2-11 ATS when favored by between 3.5 and 9.5 points. Overall they are 17-36-2 ATS in their last 55 as road chalk. The Buccaneers come into this one riding high at 8-3 ATS in their last 11 as a dog. Take the Buccaneers. Also take the OVER here. The Bucs last five games have seen an average of 51.8 ppg scored, and I expect this one to get into the 50s as well. Just three of their last 11 at home have stayed UNDER the total, while Dallas has played OVER to a 20-7 mark in their last 27 as a favorite of -3.5 to -10. Overall, they are 18-8 in their last 26 games to the OVER. They are also 12-4 OVER after a game in which 50+ pointswer scored. Make this play on Tampa Bay and the OVER.
Cowboys 14 14 3 0 31
Buccaneers 0 0 15 0 15



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