2004 Season NFL Football Past Picks
December 06, 2004
This pick was released to clients on July 10, 2012 at 8:23PM ET.
Dallas at Seattle
Monday 12/06 09:05 PM Eastern
1 unit on Seattle -7 (-110) (risk 1 to return 1.91) RESULT: LOSS
Dallas showed some life on Thanksgiving by finally winning. They've got Julius Jones back and as a result, rushed for over 150 yards for only the second time this season. Drew Hensen drew his first start last week, only to get benched midway through the game. The move proved fruitful for the Boys. With the win, Dallas moved to 4-7 and kept playoff hopes alive. Seattle sits at 6-5 and looks like a lock for the playoffs in the weak NFC. But, they've lost two of their last three, the last one a 38-9 loss at the hands of the Buffalo Bills. The Seahawks enter this game as a favorite for the 10th time this season. The Hawks have underperformed in this role, going just 4-5 ATS this season when laying points. Tonight they are giving up a full touchdown. Do they deserve to be favored by this much against a Dallas team that is coming off a few extra days of rest? Which team is the lesser of two evils? Dallas is just 1-4 ATS this year against winning teams while Seattle is only 1-4 ATS in their last five home games and 2-5 ATS as a favorite of more than 3 but less than 10 points.
Both of these teams can be described as bitter dissapointments this year. Dallas was off a surprising 10-6 season and expectations were high again. Seattle was supposed to be this year's rags to riches story. Many of the prognosticators had them as their Super Bowl pick before the season began. Dallas has been just awful while Seattle has lost a lot of games they were supposed to win. I believe Seattle hit rock bottom last week, losing to Buffalo as a five point favorirte. I've been one of their most vocal detractors as I've expressed my opinion that they were overrated most of the year. Now they are laying a full touchdown. But, finally I think the public has caught up to the fact that the Seahawks really aren't that good. As a result, I think they are not entering this game overrated. I think this spread is about right. I like the matchup of Shaun Alexander (1200 yards rushing and 10 TDs) vs. Dallas' defense. The Cowboys are scoring just 14 points per game on the road this season while giving up 30. Opposing quarterbacks are completing an obscene 68% of their passing against Dallas in these games.
Dallas is relatively healthy with only G Andre Gurode questionable with a knee injury. Seattle is without linebackers Chad Brown and Tracy White and could be without CB Bobby Taylor.
Dallas is coming off their best defensive performance of the season. They held their opponent to under 10 points for the first time. But, they aren't very good, historically following these efforts. In fact, when playing on the road, they are 4-14 ATS after holding opponents under 10 points
The Bottom Line
This is a pretty hard one to call in my opinion. While it's tough to lay 7 with a Seahawks squad that has so underperformed this season, I think things have gotten about as bad as imaginable in Seattle and I think they are poised for a bounceback. Holmgren called last week's win "embarrasing" and I expect his team to respond this week. Reports are that the teams' spirits are surprisingly high and that coach Holmgren has his troops fired up for this game. With the Rams winning on Sunday, Seattle needs this game to maintain their lead in the NFC West. I also think that despite the win last week (against a weak Chicago team), the Cowboys still have very little going for them. I like Seattle at home here.
*SEATTLE -7 (-110) vs. Dallas (1% of bankroll)