2005 Season NFL Football Past Picks
November 14, 2005
This pick was released to clients on July 25, 2012 at 7:11PM ET.
Dallas at Philadelphia
Monday 11/14 09:00 PM Eastern
3 units on Dallas +3 (-110) (risk 3 to return 5.73) RESULT: WIN
The T.O. saga is (almost) finally behind the Eagles. But, without him on the field, what chance do these guys really have? They will be better off without him over the long haul but his absence hurts their chances tonight against the Cowboys. They are 0-3 without him in the lineup since he came aboard. I don' think they should be laying 3 points to a better team. Even with Owens in the lineup, this team has looked like a shell of themselves. McNabb has been hurt and off in his passing and Mike Martz seems to have come back re-incarnated as Andy Reid. Passing over 65% of the time? That's a recipe for disaster. And, Reid has been as hard-headed about it as Martz - refusing to go back to the run, even when everyone is telling him he should. Heavy passing teams rarely do well in the NFL. Period. Those that committ to the run, do very well. Dallas committs. Dallas has run the ball 251 times this season to Philadelphia's 155. That's a 62% difference and one of the main reasons to back the Boys tonight. Dallas has faced stiffer competition than the Eagles and come out on top. The Cowboys have beaten the Giants, Chargers and crushed this Philadelphia squad a few weeks ago. They barely lost to Seattle and Washington. Philadelphia, meanwhile, have looked pretty bad the past few weeks. After losing 33-10 to Dallas, they squeaked by San Diego on a blocked fieldgoal-return-for-TD. They then got hammered by Denver and lost to Washington. Dallas is the better team. Even if Reid sees the light and tries to run tonight, he may not get much of a chance. Dallas has held it's last four opponents to an average of 63 yards rushing. And two of those opponents (Giants & Seattle) were very good rushing teams - unlike Philly. The Cowboys have the fifth ranked defense and sixth ranked offense in the league. Philly has the worst rushing game and 26th ranked defense. Sure, Philly will be fired up to show what they can do post-TO. But, the Cowboys know that and Parcells is one of the best in-division coaches in NFL history. The wrong team is favored here. Three stars on the underdog plus the field goal.