2009 Season NFL Football Past Picks

December 06, 2009

This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.


Dallas at New York

Sunday 12/06 04:15 PM Eastern

5 units on New York +1.5 (-109) (risk 5 to return 5)  RESULT: WIN

The Giants started the season 5-0, winning on average by a score of 30-14. Since then they have gone 1-5, losing on average 38-20. What has changed? Well, facing Oakland, KC and Tampa Bay in the early going, and New Orleans and San Diego in the late going is part of it. Another contributor was a +6 turnover ratio in the first five games vs. -6 in the last six. But how can I back a team that has given up 38 points per game over their last six games? This defense isn't nearly as bad as it looks. As hard as it is to believe, during their losing run in which they are giving up 38 points per game, the Giants have been outgained by just 88 total yards (15 per game)! So, turnovers and bad luck have contributed to this run to make it look worse than the true strength of this team would dicatate. Dallas however has not been scoring lately. They have managed just 14.5 points per game over their last four games. This has always been a huge rivalry game and I'm not sure if there has ever been a bigger one for the Giants. At 6-5, New York can kiss the playoffs good-bye with a loss here, and Big Blue has proven in the Coughlin era that they get their back up in the big games. Despite the problem keeping teams off the scoreboard, the Giants have been very tough to run on. In their last seven games, only one team has managed to run for over 3.5 yards per carry. Tony Romo has struggled throughout his career when he doesn't get run support. The Giants also know him well and I expect them to force him into some mistakes (which he has been known to produce once we reach December). Romo has thrown just five TDs in December games to six INTs and six fumbles. The weather forecast includes snow Saturday night in New York, and it will be a cold, breezy Sunday in the Meadowlands. Romo is just 2-11 ATS as a starter in December, and it just might be in his head now. Cold weather means the running game will be big and I like the Giants’ chances in that department here. New York is not as bad as it appears and they will be ready for this one.

Cowboys 0 10 7 7 24
Giants 0 14 7 10 31



Last 20.4 years

Wins Losses Units
2443 2157 +189.24

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