2016 Season NFL Football Past Picks
October 16, 2016
This pick was released to clients on October 15, 2021 at 1:54PM ET.
Cleveland at Tennessee
Sunday 10/16 01:00 PM Eastern
1.5 units on Cleveland +7 (-105) (risk 1.5 to return 2.93) RESULT: WIN
No one likes a loser. The Cleveland Browns are out of the gate at 0-5, but that is where a lot of the value is coming from. Backing a winless team is not in the stomach of most bettors, but the value often is. Then there is Tennessee. The Titans have been favored in just two of their last 21 games coming into this one, and the largest favorite was -3.5. They have been favored by -7 or more one time in their last 86 games. That didn't turn out too well, as they lost to Jacksonville at -12. The Browns are 0-5, but were up 20-2 on Baltimore before losing their QB. They missed three FGs vs. Miami that would have turned the game, and a bad call vs. Washington cost them the game winning drive. I just don't see Tennessee as a TD favorite out of nowhere. Teams without a win on the season and at least three losses as road dogs, and getting more than four points are 60-28 ATS! It's hard to buck the contrarian NFL situation that usually comes through. Take the points on Cleveland.
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