2009 Season NFL Football Past Picks

October 18, 2009

This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.

18

Cleveland at Pittsburgh

Sunday 10/18 01:00 PM Eastern

2 units on Cleveland +14.5 (-115) (risk 2 to return 2)  RESULT: WIN

The Browns finally put one in the win column last week without the benefit of scoring a TD as they won a defensive struggle on the road at Buffalo 6-3. They managed two pass completions for the game and so again, no one wants to touch this team. The Steelers won on the road in Detroit to move to 3-2 in a rather pedestrian 28-20 verdict over the hapless Lions. As I said last week when we took Detroit plus the points, Pittsburgh simply isn't playing like a championship team right now. The ATS loss last week dropped them to 1-4 ATS on the season. Like most past Superbowl winners, the Steelers are not playing at the same level as they did the year prior. Their 3-2 start includes blowing fourth quarter leads with consistency. The defense which tied an NFL record a year ago by holding 14 consecutive opponents to under 300 yards, allowed 335 to the lowly Lions. They are outscoring opponents by just 3 points per game on the season - not the makings of a two-TD favorite. This is definitely a breather alert game for the Steelers who own 11 straight wins over the Browns. Unbeaten Minnesota is on deck, so as much as this team has been out of focus and playing below expectations, it is unlikely we see a full effort here either with the Vikings on the radar. The Steelers have proven over and over that they do not bring it against bad teams as they are now 3-10 ATS as a favorite of 10.5 or more and also 3-9 ATS as a home favorite of 10.5 or more, covering just once in their last six games. Yes, Pittsburgh is a good team and should win this game, but asking them to cover two touchdowns in a let-down game is asking a bit too much.

FINAL SCORE
TEAM 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FINAL
Browns 0 7 7 2 14
Steelers 0 17 7 3 27

NFL

 

Last 20.4 years

Wins Losses Units
2443 2157 +189.24

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