2008 Season NFL Football Past Picks
December 28, 2008
This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.
Cleveland at Pittsburgh
Sunday 12/28 01:00 PM Eastern
3 units on Pittsburgh -11 (-110) (risk 3 to return 3) RESULT: LOSS
This game looks like an automatic blowout for the Steelers who are one of the league's top teams facing one of the league's worst. We have the top-ranked defense against an offense that couldn't even score against the Bengals at home a week ago, and hasn't scored an offensive TD in five weeks. The public is racing to pile on the post X-Mas gift from the oddsmakers at 84% on the Steelers. Not so fast! The outcome of this game does not change the fate of the Steelers. They are locked into the #2 seed regardless of the outcome. Mike Tomlin said at his press conference he will not treat this like an exhibition game, but what is he supposed to say? He said the same last year when the Steelers had secured a playoff spot then sat all of his starters and went on to lose a game to the 4-11 Ravens outright - a game in which they were also favored. Ben Roethlisberger, ailing all season long, was quoted this week as saying he could use some time off after getting banged around pretty good by the Titans. The Browns are down to their fourth QB, with Derek Anderson, Brady Quinn, and now Ken Dorsey all injured. The public hears 4th string and cringes. But, Bruce Gradkowski will actually be an upgrade over Dorsey in my opinion. Gradkowski had nine TD passes in his last 11 starts in the NFL which is nine more TDs than Cleveland QBs have produced in the last five games. I also love the fact that the Browns are coming off a ridiculously embarrassing loss last week to the then 2-12 Bengals, getting shut out. Teams that suffer the most embarrassing fate in the NFL (getting shutout at home) have come back to go 45-25 ATS since 1983! As ugly as this one looks, the Browns get the call here.