Cleveland at New Orleans

Eight sacks and a 27-6 loss at Pittsburgh left the Browns at 5-3. Deshaun Watson took a helmet-to-helmet hit in that game and did not practice Wednesday or Thursday while in the concussion protocol. The Browns have scored 17.4 points a game through eight games and allowed 21.6. They have scored 17 or fewer in four of those eight. New Orleans is 2-5 and has allowed 27.7 points a game over seven. Opponents convert 47.8% of their third downs against the Saints, and Cleveland's defense has 21 sacks to bring to a game where Tyler Shough is playing through two broken bones in his left hand. The Saints scored 10 in their last game, a 16-10 loss at Pittsburgh on October 25, and then took the bye. The Browns are the team with the winning record, and the Saints have not shown they can make a defense pay for a slow afternoon of their own. That is why I want the points here. The first half is where both offenses sputter. New Orleans is last in the NFL in first-quarter points and has scored in an opening quarter once, in Week 3 against the Raiders. Cleveland scores touchdowns on 42.9% of its red-zone trips, so its drives keep ending in field goals or turnovers. The Saints allow plenty of points, but most of those come once a game has opened up. The early minutes are when New Orleans has been at its worst, and Cleveland's offense has the most trouble finishing, so the first half should stay quiet. Take the Browns with the points as my NFL Game of the Week, and add the first-half UNDER on Sunday afternoon.