2009 Season NFL Football Past Picks
November 29, 2009
This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.
Cleveland at Cincinnati
Sunday 11/29 01:00 PM Eastern
3 units on Cleveland +14 (-130) (risk 3 to return 3) RESULT: WIN
The Browns were stunned with no time left on the clock a week ago vs. the Lions, suffering a heartbreaking one-point loss. But was it really that heart-breaking? This is a team that needed something to give them confidence and they got it. They scored more points in that game than they had in their previous five combined. Sometimes, until you do it you don't believe that you can, and that performance should boost the confidence in the Browns offense. The Bengals offense isn't nearly as bad as the Browns, but they are having issues of their own. They went on the road a week ago and lost to lowly Oakland. The Bengals have scored 18 points or less in five of their last six games! Rewinding the tape, the Browns previous high water mark offensively this season was achieved vs. the Bengals, in a 23-20 OT loss. Cleveland out-played the Bengals in that game, moving the chains for more first downs, more rushing yards, and more passing yards than Cincinnati. And, they didn't get a spike from turnovers as they were even. The Browns found themselves in the red zone in that game five times. It is hard to back a team struggling to score as a two TD chalk, regardless of the competition. The Browns have built off of their few offensive performances by going 7-0 ATS after a game where they passed for 250+, and the Bengals are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven as a home favorite. The Bengals have gone 0-6 ATS the past three seasons vs. bad offensive teams (those averaging 14 or fewer ppg). Over that same span, Cleveland is 6-0 ATS after scoring 30+ in a game. The Dog has cashed the last five in this series and Cleveland will make it six. The Brownies get the nod here.