2015 Season NFL Football Past Picks
November 05, 2015
This pick was released to clients on November 04, 2015 at 10:39PM ET.
Cleveland at Cincinnati
Thursday 11/05 08:25 PM Eastern
0.5 unit on Cleveland +12 (-110) (risk 0.5 to return 0.95) RESULT: LOSS
This is a tough spot for the home team laying a huge number. The pressure is on the Bengals, trying to become the 33rd team in NFL history to start 8-0. They come into this one on short rest off a bruising, physical game with the rival Steelers - always a tough contest. And the Bengals were banged up by the Steelers, which is no surprise. RT Andre Smith (concussion) is out, starting MLB Rey Maualuga (calf) has been limited in practice, along with LE Carlos Dunlap (shoulder). The Bengals are 1-4 ATS in their last five Thursday games as prime-time matchups have seen them underperform for years. This looks like a mismatch to many, but note that Cleveland Coach Mike Pettine is .500 vs. the Bengals and Marvin Lewis. Last year on this field, Cleveland notched a 24-3 victory. Johnny Manziel gets the start and was embarrassed by the Bengals last season in his first career start. But that was a different year and a different player, a rookie. He's improved and this will be the second start this season for Manziel after he beat Tennessee in week two when Josh McCown was sidelined by a concussion, throwing for 172 yards and a pair of TDs with no picks. The Browns are 9-4-1 ATS following a loss, 5-1-1 ATS in division play and 5-0 ATS on short rest playing in these Thursday games, which included that straight-up win last season as a +6 point dog. Under Mike Pettine, the Browns are 8-1 ATS following a spread loss. Cincinnati has not been a double-digit favorite since they played Jacksonville last season, failing to cover, and the Browns have more than enough to keep it close in another rugged divisional matchup. Division favorites of this size rarely cover. In fact, since 1990, division home favorites of more than 10 points are just 113-143-3 against the number. Hold your breath and take the points on Cleveland.