2013 Season NFL Football Past Picks
December 01, 2013
This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.
Cincinnati at Los Angeles
Sunday 12/01 04:25 PM Eastern
1 unit on Cincinnati -127 (moneyline) (risk 1 to return 1) RESULT: win
1.5 units on Game Total UNDER 49 -110 (risk 1.5 to return 1.5) RESULT: win
Both of these teams are coming off of big offensive games, but look for the offenses to come back to earth this week. The UNDER is 8-3 in the Chargers' last 11 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game, and the Bengals are 20-6-1 UNDER the total after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. Cincinnati is a conservative offense under OC Jay Gruden, and will look to establish the running game first here. They've scored a total of 37 points in their last two road games - and both went overtime. The UNDER is 21-6 in the Bengals' last 27 games in December, 10-3-1 UNDER the total against the AFC. San Diego will struggle to move the football against a Cincy defense ranked 6th against the pass and 10th against the run, as a dominant all-around unit. San Diego is on a 5-2 run UNDER the total, and the UNDER is 7-0 in the Chargers' last seven home games against a team with a winning road record. San Diego may be home, but it's a tough scheduling spot, off an emotional win at division rival KC in a 41-38 stunner. The Chargers are 1-7-1 ATS following a win while the Bengals are on a 13-6-1 ATS run. Cincy has the better defense, and the Bengals are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings, plus the road team is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings. The Chargers have struggled vs. good offensive teams of late going just 3-11 ATS the past three seasons vs. teams that average 24+ points pre game. Meanwhile, the Marvin Lewis-led Bengals know how to carry momentum from one game to the next, going 21-11 ATS following a double-digit win. Play the Bengals and go with the UNDER.
|Los Angeles ChargersChargers||0||7||0||3||10|