2022 Season NFL Football Past Picks
January 29, 2023
This pick was released to clients on January 25, 2023 at 2:49PM ET.
Cincinnati at Kansas City
Sunday 01/29 06:30 PM Eastern
1.5 units on Cincinnati PICK (-111) (risk 1.5 to return 2.85) RESULT: loss
1.5 units on Game Total OVER 47 -108 (risk 1.5 to return 2.89) RESULT: loss
Patrick Mahomes has a high ankle sprain, but even if he were totally healthy his Kansas City team would have difficulty dealing with the Bengals, who overcame a slow start (probably due to a Super Bowl hangover) and have since won 10 in a row with an 8-1-1 ATS record. Besides, the Bengals went 10-1 ATS vs. teams averaging more than 260 passing yards and 6-0 ATS vs. elite passing offenses who complete higher than 65% of their passes. Joe Burrow went on the road, dominated the Bills and completed his first nine passes for 105 yards, and finished 23 of 36 for 242 yards in snowy conditions. Cincinnati has won and covered the past three meetings, including last year's thrilling 27-24 overtime road victory that sent the Bengals to the Super Bowl, so they won't be intimidated playing at Arrowhead Stadium. Cincinnati is 13-2-1 ATS its past 16 games vs. teams with winning records and 37-17 ATS in their past 54 road games. Also, the Bengals are 19-6-1 vs. the AFC and 6-1-1 ATS overall in January. The Chiefs have been a notorious money-burner with a 2-8-1 ATS record in their past 11 games and 1-8-1 ATS at home. Part of the problem is a middling D that allows 21.6 PPG (T-15th), and Burrow tears up average defenses. Also, Kansas City is 9-24 ATS against the AFC (2-11 ATS this season), and they have not covered their last five against teams with winning records. The Bengals are 7-1-1 OVER after winning by more than two touchdowns in their previous game and the Chiefs are 10-4 OVER in their past 14 January games. This is a lower posted total than when the teams met on Dec. 4 and Cincinnati won 27-24, but I'll note that Cinci is a perfect 13-0 ATS with totals greater than 45 since late last season. The Bengals have averaged 28.3 points in their past 10 games and HC Zach Taylor is 25-11 ATS on the road, going 33-19 ATS vs. the AFC. Andy Reid, thrust into the underdog role as bettors contemplate the impact of Mahomes' injury, also qualifies for a 23-13 OVER angle when getting points. Take the Bengals and the OVER.
|Kansas City ChiefsChiefs||3||10||7||3||23|
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