2009 Season NFL Football Past Picks

October 04, 2009

This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.


Cincinnati at Cleveland

Sunday 10/04 01:00 PM Eastern

2 units on Cleveland +7 (-115) (risk 2 to return 2)  RESULT: WIN

The Cleveland Browns have looked extremely ugly over their first three games and enter week four looking for their first win. While the Browns are certainly far from a good team, they are not nearly as bad as they have looked either. They have played three games against good teams that are 9-0 and outscoring their opponents 251-126 (14 points per game). These Browns' opponents rank No. 1, 4 and 7 on defense after three weeks, and offensively rank No. 2, 9, and 18. Cleveland certainly contributed to those inflated stats with their bad play, but those stats are based on nine games, of which hte Browns account for just one third. This week they are facing a much different caliber of team in the Bengals who rank No. 16 offensively and No. 24 defensively. They have to be on an emotional downer here after going on the road and beating Green Bay and coming from a 20-9 deficit in the fourth quarter to beat the defending Superbowl Champ Steelers. That last game had to take a lot out of them. Teams after facing the Mike Tomlin-led Steelers are just 13-20 SU and a woeful 9-24 ATS. Included in that mix is an 0-7 ATS contribution by the Bengals. The Browns also made a good move at QB as Brady Quinn simply could not move the team. With Derek Anderson back at QB, Cleveland can at least stretch the field and open up room for the running game. The Browns may look to be at their worst right now, but when posted as a home dog after an ugly game of scoring 6 or less, they are now a perfect 5-0 ATS. This one might have an ugly look to it, but I think laying nearly a TD on the road for the Bengals is asking a lot.

Bengals 7 7 0 6 0 23
Browns 0 7 7 6 3 20



Last 20.4 years

Wins Losses Units
2443 2157 +189.24

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