2022 Season NFL Football Past Picks

January 22, 2023

This pick was released to clients on January 19, 2023 at 4:07PM ET.


Cincinnati at Buffalo

Sunday 01/22 03:00 PM Eastern

2 units on Cincinnati +5.5 (-108) (risk 2 to return 3.85)  RESULT: win

1 unit on Cincinnati +210 (moneyline) (risk 1 to return 3.1)  RESULT: win

1.5 units on Game Total UNDER 49 -110 (risk 1.5 to return 2.86)  RESULT: win

For the second straight year, I have put money on the Bills in the offseason to win it all. And for the second straight year, on paper they are the best team. Part of me wants them to win it all for this reason, but I gotta jump ship this week on the Bills. The only thing that saved Buffalo last week was the inexperience of the Dolphins, who nearly defeated the Bills with a third-string quarterback on the road, and with Miami missing numerous offensive starters. The Bills have won eight straight, but five were against teams that finished below .500 and two were against the Dolphins. Cincinnati has won nine in a row, including completing the tough task of beating Baltimore two straight weeks and victories over Pittsburgh, Kansas City, and Tampa Bay. The Bengals are on a current 7-1-1 ATS run and four of their past seven have gone UNDER as they have allowed an average of just 17.7 points in that span. Josh Allen had three more turnovers against Miami and was sacked seven times, and he tied for third-most in the league with 14 interceptions this season. Joe Burrow was 23 of 32 for 209 yards with no picks against the Ravens, and Cincinnati won despite being outgained 364-234. The Bengals have allowed only 16.8 points per game their past five contests. The Bengals are 36-17 ATS in their past 53 road games and 12-3-1 ATS overall versus teams with winning records and 16-4-1 ATS overall following a win. Buffalo has covered just two of seven home games. The UNDER is 11-3 in Cincinnati's past 14 January games and they are 8-1 UNDER overall in the playoffs. Also, Cincy is 12-3-1 UNDER against the AFC. And, since last season, they are 15-3 straight-up vs. winning teams. Burrow is 11-1 straight-up this season vs. defenses like Buffalo's that allow over 60% completions. They are also 10-6 straight-up as a dog in the Burrow era. And get this: Under Sean McDermott, Buffalo has fallen apart in the late season vs. great teams going 1-8 straight-up in the second-half of the season vs. teams at .750 or better. Take the Bengals ATS as a Max Play, back them also on the moneyline, and play this game to stay UNDER.

Bengals 14 3 7 3 27
Bills 0 7 3 0 10


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