2004 Season NFL Football Past Picks

December 05, 2004

This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.

05

Cincinnati at Baltimore

Sunday 12/05 01:00 PM Eastern

3 units on Cincinnati +6.5 (-110) (risk 3 to return 5.73)  RESULT: win

1 unit on Cincinnati +240 (moneyline) (risk 1 to return 3.4)  RESULT: win

The Bengals are off a big time win in which they put up 58 points. I expect some of that momentum to carry into this game, giving them a fighting chance against against a Jamal-less Ravens team. Baltimore is in a tough spot in this one. They are off a humbling 24-3 loss to New England. It was a game they desperately wanted, to prove that their offense was improving and that they could hang with the big boys. They got sent back to the little leagues as their offense was held to 124 yards of total offense. While the Bengals scored 58 points, their defense allowed 48. That's embarrasing to a defensive mastermind like Marvin Lewis. As a result, I expect the Cincinnati defense to come out with one of its best performances of the season. They'll need it as they won't score a lot. Cincinnati's averaging a full yard-per-play more than Baltimore (5.5 vs. 4.5). This season, road teams with a higher YPP average are 25-9 ATS. Back to my initial momentum comment, road underdogs in games following a 450+ yard offensive performance cover the spread about 72% of the time. Six and a half points is too much in this one and we'll go with the dog. Three stars on Cincinnati plus the points and one star on the Bengals to pull the upset and win outright.

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