Chicago at Green Bay

A pair of talented NFC North quarterbacks meet facing suspect secondaries. Chicago is better on offense with backup QB Brian Hoyer (six TDs to 0 INTs). Hoyer is the first quarterback in team history to record four consecutive 300-yard passing games. The defense, though, is young and short on talent, allowing 29 points or more in three of the last five. Chicago is 35-17 OVER the total after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. They head to rival Green Bay, a team that won't have RB Eddie Lacy, so they will have to bail on their balanced offensive approach. That's fine against this Chicago defense -- and finer still when you have a QB like Aaron Rodgers (10 TDs, four INTs). And, under Mike McCarthy, the Packers are 22-12 OVER as a home favorite in this range (7.5 to 14 points) and 35-20 OVER after a loss. The Packers' defense, though, has been erratic at #21 against the pass while the run defense got steamrolled by Dallas at home Sunday in a 30-16 loss. The defense allowed 191 yards rushing and 233 passing. QB Rodgers hasn't struggled in his last four encounters with Chicago, throwing 14 touchdowns against one interception for a 127.0 passer rating. Green Bay is 42-18-1 OVER the total after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game and this total is too low. Play this one to finish OVER the total.