Chicago at Green Bay

Chicago averages 28 points per game, and 59 of its 112 points came in one game: the 59-37 win at Carolina. Without that one, the Bears average 17.7 points per game over their other three. Caleb Williams is out with a hamstring injury, Tyson Bagent started last week against the Jets, and Kyler Gordon and Anthony Johnson Jr. are out in the secondary, with Joe Thuney questionable on the line. Chicago is 3-1 and 2-0 without Williams, but both wins came at home against Philadelphia and the Jets, who rank 26th and 25th in scoring, respectively. Green Bay is 2-2 and averages 18.3 points (28th in the league), and without Micah Parsons and Josh Jacobs, the offense isn't this side's strength. The Packers do have a per-play edge: they gain 5.2 yards per play and allow 5.0, while Chicago gains 5.8 and allows 5.9. They lost to Minnesota, 4-0, with the league's best scoring defense, and to Atlanta; both wins were by 3 points. I'm on Green Bay with the points Sunday, and I don't expect this one to need them.