These picks were released to clients on February 01, 2016 at 5:06PM ET.
img NFL

Carolina vs. Denver

February 7, 2016
img6:30 PM Eastern

Its the Super Bowl. The two teams that made it here are deserving and great. They are probably at least relatively evenly matched. If you asked 10 of your friends whether one of the two teams will score three straight times without the other team scoring, probably eight of them would say no way! Your gut tells you that this will be a back-and-forth affair. One team scoring back-to-back-to-back unanswered just isnt likely to happen, right? Thats why most people bet the NO on this prop. Its also why the oddsmakers end up shading the line. They likely know that they are offering great odds on the YES bet but since most of their action is on the other side, they are ok with it. That leaves a great opportunity for us to take advantage. The reality is that in 49 Super Bowls, there have been 36 games in which one or both of the teams scored three straight times unanswered during the game. That comes out to 73.4% of the time. Fair odds on a 73% bet are -275. So, laying just -180 on this bet has value. Take the YES and look forward to winning this bet three out of every four times you place it.

1.5 units on Either Team Scores 3 Unanswered = YES -165 (risk 1.5 to return 2.41)
Result:
LOSS
1 unit on Denver +6 (-105) (risk 1 to return 1.95)
Result:
WIN
1 unit on Game Total OVER 44.5 -110 (risk 1 to return 1.91)
Result:
LOSS
2 units on First Quarter UNDER 9.5 -123 (risk 2 to return 3.62)
Result:
LOSS
2 units on Fourth Quarter OVER 10.5 -130 (risk 2 to return 3.54)
Result:
WIN
1.5 units on Highest-Scoring Quarter = 4th +175 (risk 1.5 to return 4.13)
Result:
WIN
2.5 units on Highest-Scoring Half = 2nd+OT -110 (risk 2.5 to return 4.77)
Result:
LOSS
2.5 units on Scoreless Quarter = NO -300 (risk 2.5 to return 3.33)
Result:
WIN
2 units on Team to Score First Wins the Game = YES -165 (risk 2 to return 3.21)
Result:
WIN
1.5 units on Longest Touchdown OVER 42.5 yards -105 (risk 1.5 to return 2.93)
Result:
LOSS
2 units on Total Field Goals UNDER 3.5 -120 (risk 2 to return 3.67)
Result:
LOSS
2 units on Longest Field Goal UNDER 45.5 yards -115 (risk 2 to return 3.74)
Result:
WIN
1.5 units on Total Penalties UNDER 12.5 -135 (risk 1.5 to return 2.61)
Result:
LOSS
FINAL
1
2
3
4
F
Carolina Panthers
0
7
0
3
10
Denver Broncos img
10
3
3
8
24
consensus consensus
odds odds
 
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