Will there be a huge game-breaker play in this game? Will one team score a long touchdown of 43 or more yards? Your intuition probably says that its not that likely. But, the stats speak otherwise. Over the first 49 Super Bowls, a team has scored a 45+ yard touchdown 31 times (63.3% of the time). And, the games that didnt have a long touchdown were front-loaded in the early years. In the first 20 Super Bowls, eight of the games saw the longest touchdown remain under 45 yards. But in the last 29 Super Bowls, only 10 games have failed to produce a touchdown of 45+ yards. Thats just 34% of the time. So, we can expect roughly a two-thirds chance of winning this bet, while getting about even odds. Take the OVER on this prop bet.
These picks were released to clients on February 01, 2016 at 5:06PM ET.
NFL
Carolina vs. Denver
February 7, 2016
6:30 PM Eastern
1.5 units on Longest Touchdown OVER 42.5 yards -105 (risk 1.5 to return 2.93)
Result:
LOSS
LOSS
1 unit on Denver +6 (-105) (risk 1 to return 1.95)
Result:
WIN
WIN
1 unit on Game Total OVER 44.5 -110 (risk 1 to return 1.91)
Result:
LOSS
LOSS
2 units on First Quarter UNDER 9.5 -123 (risk 2 to return 3.62)
Result:
LOSS
LOSS
2 units on Fourth Quarter OVER 10.5 -130 (risk 2 to return 3.54)
Result:
WIN
WIN
1.5 units on Highest-Scoring Quarter = 4th +175 (risk 1.5 to return 4.13)
Result:
WIN
WIN
2.5 units on Highest-Scoring Half = 2nd+OT -110 (risk 2.5 to return 4.77)
Result:
LOSS
LOSS
2.5 units on Scoreless Quarter = NO -300 (risk 2.5 to return 3.33)
Result:
WIN
WIN
2 units on Team to Score First Wins the Game = YES -165 (risk 2 to return 3.21)
Result:
WIN
WIN
1.5 units on Either Team Scores 3 Unanswered = YES -165 (risk 1.5 to return 2.41)
Result:
LOSS
LOSS
2 units on Total Field Goals UNDER 3.5 -120 (risk 2 to return 3.67)
Result:
LOSS
LOSS
2 units on Longest Field Goal UNDER 45.5 yards -115 (risk 2 to return 3.74)
Result:
WIN
WIN
1.5 units on Total Penalties UNDER 12.5 -135 (risk 1.5 to return 2.61)
Result:
LOSS
LOSS
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