Bettors dont want to believe anything is pre-determined. Who cares that Seattle scored on a safety to open the game two years ago? Who cares that the Pats took a 7-0 lead on Seattle last year? Both teams still have a good shot at winning, right? Lets have a look at the numbers which tell a different story. Through the first 49 Super Bowls, the team that has scored first has won 76% of the time (37-12) and has gone 36-11-2 against the spread. It doesnt matter if that team was the underdog or the favorite the team to put up points first has a huge advantage in winning this game. The last five Super Bowls have seen the YES come through on this prop bet five straight times. Over the past 27 years, the YES on this has hit 18 times (67%). At a 67% win rate, the fair line on this bet is -203. At the longer term rate of 76%, the fair line is -317. Yet, we get odds of just -165 on this prop bet, providing value. Bet the YES on this prop.
These picks were released to clients on February 01, 2016 at 5:06PM ET.
NFL
Carolina vs. Denver
February 7, 2016
6:30 PM Eastern
2 units on Team to Score First Wins the Game = YES -165 (risk 2 to return 3.21)
Result:
WIN
WIN
1 unit on Denver +6 (-105) (risk 1 to return 1.95)
Result:
WIN
WIN
1 unit on Game Total OVER 44.5 -110 (risk 1 to return 1.91)
Result:
LOSS
LOSS
2 units on First Quarter UNDER 9.5 -123 (risk 2 to return 3.62)
Result:
LOSS
LOSS
2 units on Fourth Quarter OVER 10.5 -130 (risk 2 to return 3.54)
Result:
WIN
WIN
1.5 units on Highest-Scoring Quarter = 4th +175 (risk 1.5 to return 4.13)
Result:
WIN
WIN
2.5 units on Highest-Scoring Half = 2nd+OT -110 (risk 2.5 to return 4.77)
Result:
LOSS
LOSS
2.5 units on Scoreless Quarter = NO -300 (risk 2.5 to return 3.33)
Result:
WIN
WIN
1.5 units on Longest Touchdown OVER 42.5 yards -105 (risk 1.5 to return 2.93)
Result:
LOSS
LOSS
1.5 units on Either Team Scores 3 Unanswered = YES -165 (risk 1.5 to return 2.41)
Result:
LOSS
LOSS
2 units on Total Field Goals UNDER 3.5 -120 (risk 2 to return 3.67)
Result:
LOSS
LOSS
2 units on Longest Field Goal UNDER 45.5 yards -115 (risk 2 to return 3.74)
Result:
WIN
WIN
1.5 units on Total Penalties UNDER 12.5 -135 (risk 1.5 to return 2.61)
Result:
LOSS
LOSS
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