2015 Season NFL Football Past Picks

February 07, 2016

This pick was released to clients on February 02, 2016 at 6:25PM ET.

07

Carolina vs. Denver

Sunday 02/07 06:30 PM Eastern

1.5 units on Highest-Scoring Quarter = 4th +175 (risk 1.5 to return 4.13)  RESULT: WIN

If all quarters were created equal, then each would have a 25% chance of being the highest scoring and fair odds on this bet would be +300. But, not all quarters are equal. In the 2015-16 season, the average points scored for the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th quarters, respectively, was 8.7, 13.5, 9.4 and 12.9. This is pretty close to the long term averages for modern NFL games. Based on those figures, it would seem that the 2nd quarter would be the best bet for highest-scoring. And this is exactly how the oddsmakers have set the odds. The odds for betting the 2nd quarter are just +160, providing very little if any value. But there is tremendous value on taking the 4th quarter because the oddsmakers are again not paying enough attention. They arent looking enough at how Super Bowls specifically play out. The average points per quarter for first 49 Super Bowls are: 1st: 8.12, 2nd: 11.78, 3rd: 9.94, 4th: 13.14. Yes, the Super Bowl is different! In last 25 years it's gotten even more pronounced: 1st: 8.64, 2nd: 14.00, 3rd: 12.00, 4th: 15.72. The 4th quarter has been the highest-scoring quarter in 11 of the last 20 Super Bowls (55%). At that rate, the odds you should be laying are -122. But, instead, we are getting +175 here. In terms of value, this is about as good as it gets!
FINAL SCORE
TEAM 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FINAL
Panthers 0 7 0 3 10
Broncos 10 3 3 8 24

NFL

 

Last 20.4 years

Wins Losses Units
2443 2157 +189.24

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