In the 2015-2016 season, NFL games averaged 13.8 total penalties. But of course there is more. Is the Super Bowl any different than the average NFL game? Of course it is. Its a huge game and no one wants to see it decided by the referees. The refs know this and just like in other big games (NBA Finals, college football/basketball championship games, etc), the refs have a tendency to swallow their whistles. Everyone including the referees wants the game decided on the field by the players. While the average number of total penalties per game in NFL regular season games averages around 12.5 to 13.5, the average number of penalties in the Super Bowl averages just 10.5 to 11 a huge drop. The bulk of regular season NFL gams see between 10 and 13 penalties called. In the Super Bowl, the most common numbers are 8, 9 and 10. Since 2001, only 51 playoff games have gone over 12 penalties (compared to 109 that have fallen below 13). In 2015, only three of ten playoffs games went over 12 penalties. That equates to far odds of -213. In games in which referee Clete Blakeman has presided, the average called penalties was 11.8 - below this posted total even before we take into account the magnitude of this game. So, the case is very strong for the number of called penalties in this game failing to reach 13. Take the UNDER on this prop.
These picks were released to clients on February 01, 2016 at 5:06PM ET.
Carolina vs. Denver
February 7, 2016
1.5 units on Total Penalties UNDER 12.5 -135 (risk 1.5 to return 2.61)
Result:
LOSS
LOSS
1 unit on Denver +6 (-105) (risk 1 to return 1.95)
Result:
WIN
WIN
1 unit on Game Total OVER 44.5 -110 (risk 1 to return 1.91)
Result:
LOSS
LOSS
2 units on First Quarter UNDER 9.5 -123 (risk 2 to return 3.62)
Result:
LOSS
LOSS
2 units on Fourth Quarter OVER 10.5 -130 (risk 2 to return 3.54)
Result:
WIN
WIN
1.5 units on Highest-Scoring Quarter = 4th +175 (risk 1.5 to return 4.13)
Result:
WIN
WIN
2.5 units on Highest-Scoring Half = 2nd+OT -110 (risk 2.5 to return 4.77)
Result:
LOSS
LOSS
2.5 units on Scoreless Quarter = NO -300 (risk 2.5 to return 3.33)
Result:
WIN
WIN
2 units on Team to Score First Wins the Game = YES -165 (risk 2 to return 3.21)
Result:
WIN
WIN
1.5 units on Longest Touchdown OVER 42.5 yards -105 (risk 1.5 to return 2.93)
Result:
LOSS
LOSS
1.5 units on Either Team Scores 3 Unanswered = YES -165 (risk 1.5 to return 2.41)
Result:
LOSS
LOSS
2 units on Total Field Goals UNDER 3.5 -120 (risk 2 to return 3.67)
Result:
LOSS
LOSS
2 units on Longest Field Goal UNDER 45.5 yards -115 (risk 2 to return 3.74)
Result:
WIN
WIN
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