2015 Season NFL Football Past Picks

February 07, 2016

This pick was released to clients on February 02, 2016 at 6:25PM ET.

07

Carolina vs. Denver

Sunday 02/07 06:30 PM Eastern

2 units on Fourth Quarter OVER 10.5 -130 (risk 2 to return 3.54)  RESULT: WIN

If the first-quarter is the proverbial tortoise, the fourth quarter in the Super Bowl is the hare. More often than not, the final quarter has been a score-fest in the NFL, both in the regular season and (especially) in the Super Bowl. By the time the 4th quarter rolls around in this game, all the jitters are gone and it's no-holds-barred. The league average in the fourth quarter this NFL season was 12.9 (48% higher than the first quarter). In Broncos games this year, even with their great defense, 12.8 points were scored on average in the fourth-quarter. In Panthers games, 12.7 points were scored on average. So based on those numbers, we might expect around 13 points in the 4th quarter this year. However, thats not the whole story. In the Super Bowl, these figures have traditionally increased. In fact, 19 of the last 28 Super Bowl games (68%) have seen the fourth quarter go OVER the posted total. Eight years ago, the Pats and Giants combined for 21 fourth quarter points in a game in which just 31 total points were scored. Seven years ago, after seeing just 27 points scored in the first three quarters combined, 23 points were put up in the final quarter by Arizona and Pittsburgh. Six seasons ago, there was a push with 14 points scored in the 4th. Five years ago, the Packers and Steelers put up 18 fourth quarter points. Four years back, the Giants and Patriots only scored 6 in a rare fourth-quarter UNDER. Three years ago, 14 points were scored by the 49ers and Ravens, going OVER the total. Two years ago was another rare UNDER (7 points scored) as the game was well out of hand with Seattle leading 36-8 going into the fourth so neither team was really pressing any more. Last season, things returned to form with 14 fourth-quarter points and a resulting OVER. In this game, I think the offenses will be clicking by the fourth quarter and theres a high chance that the game, like last year, will not be out of reach. With a 68% historical trend backing us, go with the OVER here in the 4th quarter.
FINAL SCORE
TEAM 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FINAL
Panthers 0 7 0 3 10
Broncos 10 3 3 8 24

NFL

 

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