2010 Season NFL Football Past Picks

November 14, 2010

This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.

14

Carolina at Tampa Bay

Sunday 11/14 01:00 PM Eastern

5 units on Carolina PICK () (risk 5 to return 5)  RESULT: LOSS

Carolina is in dissarray. They are 1-7. Their starting QB is out. Their two-headed monster rushing attack has one player out (Williams) and another questionable (Stewart). They are coming off a 34-3 drubbing and lost by double-digits the game prior to that. What a perfect time to back them! The Bucs have started this season 5-3 after winning just three games last season, and they are well within striking distance of the playoffs. A team that has historically been the underdog is all of a sudden asked to cover a TD spread. The Bucs have overperformed expectations this season, but those expectations were low! They have been an underdog in six of seven games. They were a favorite once - to St. Louis, and they did not cover that spread. The Panthers' defense ranks #11 in yards allowed per game and their bad offense should finally be able to move the ball vs the soft 25th ranked Tampa defense that allows five yards per carry. Tampa's offense is getting less than 20 points per game and will be challenged by this Carolina defense. So, laying a full TD here is risky business and I see the value on the other side. The Panthers are 13-6 ATS coming off a 10+ point loss at home while the Bucs have been no-shows at home vs. a team with a losing record at 0-7 ATS in their last seven. Tampa Bay is 1-9 ATS dating back to last season at home and 0-6 ATS over that span after a road loss. John Fox is 41-29 ATS as an underdog (31-19 on the road). He's also 19-10 ATS off a home loss and 10-1 ATS after scoring less than a touchdown. Carolina shows some pride here and keeps this one close at a minimum.
FINAL SCORE
TEAM 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FINAL
Panthers 3 7 6 0 16
Buccaneers 7 14 0 10 31

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Wins Losses Units
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