Tampa Bay at Carolina

Tampa Bay went from a 6-2 start to 7-7. They're on a 1-5 SU, 0-6 ATS run after a crushing loss to Atlanta at home, 29-28. QB Baker Mayfield has six touchdowns and five interceptions over the last five contests. The defense is 25th in yards allowed, 20th on third down, and 24th in points (25.3 per game). Meanwhile, Carolina is 4-2 at home and is on an 8-5 ATS run. In their last home game, they were a double-digit underdog against the Rams, but won, 31-28. The defense is 14th in points given up, while QB Bryce Young has 18 TDs and seven picks in his last 13 games. With both teams at 7-7 fighting for the division title, back the home dog. Play Carolina.