2009 Season NFL Football Past Picks

September 20, 2009

This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.

20

Carolina at Atlanta

Sunday 09/20 01:00 PM Eastern

3 units on Carolina +6 (-110) (risk 3 to return 3)  RESULT: LOSS

Last week's results for both of these teams are deceiving. On the surface, Atlanta's 12 point win over Miami (last year's darling) was viewed as reinforcement that the Falcons are for real. But, Atlanta should have a few concerns as they were given four Dolphins' turnovers at home and managed to produce just 19 points. Last week was very forgettable for the Panthers and especially Jake Delhomme. That game left Delhomme with nine INTs and two fumbles in his last two games counting the playoff debacle to end the season last year. But Carolina is not that bad and you just can't expect that kind of turnover fest to continue. Delhomme will focus on ball protection this game and without that many errors, the Panthers can be a very good team. They have a good rushing attack where the Falcons are vulnerable, so I'd expect to see a lot more of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathon Stewart in this one. The problem last week was the Panthers mistakes made them play from behind, and the running back duo just didn't get enough touches. Delhomme will be thankful this one is on the road, so the boos don't fill the Stadium. And, he is 29-16 ATS in 45 road starts including 23-9 ATS as a dog. The Panthers are 29-14 ATS in their last 43 games after being outrushed by 75+ yards. The Falcons have not been a good team in the second of back-to-back home games after a win. They stand at a miserable 2-17 ATS at immediately following a home win (1-12 ATS if the win was by double digits) and this is a game in which they can get caught with overconfidence after the Miami win and facing a team that was blown out by 28 points last week. Finally, this has been a road-oriented series, with the road team taking five of the last seven, and this is an overreaction to one week and too many points. I'll go with Carolina here.
FINAL SCORE
TEAM 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FINAL
Panthers 3 10 0 7 20
Falcons 7 14 0 7 28

NFL

 

Last 20.4 years

Wins Losses Units
2443 2157 +189.24

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